In 2017, Bhagwan Bhai Patel voted for change.
That yr, meeting elections have been held in Gujarat within the shadow of large protests by the Patel neighborhood to demand reservations in authorities jobs.
The protests had resonated with Bhagwan Bhai, who belonged to the predominantly agrarian caste group. A farmer in Junagadh district’s Moti Khodiyar village, he was discovering it more and more tough to maintain his household on the meagre returns from groundnut and cotton cultivation.
He determined to change loyalties from the Bharatiya Janata Social gathering, which had dominated the state for 5 straight phrases, to the Congress, its principal rival.
Not solely did the Congress go on to win in Manavadar constituency the place Bhagwan Bhai lives, it picked up 28 of 48 seats in Saurashtra area, of which Junagadh is part. In 2012, the BJP had received 31 seats within the area. In 2017, its tally dropped to 19.
However the BJP nonetheless managed to retain the state. Within the 182-seat Meeting, it received 99 constituencies to the Congress’ 78. Nevertheless, the margin of its victory was the slimmest since 1995 when it first got here to energy by itself in Gujarat. On the coronary heart of this lowered mandate was the BJP’s sub-par efficiency in Saurashtra, a predominantly rural area the place agrarian misery was excessive.
5 years later, because the state heads into one other meeting election this winter, resentment amongst farmers in Saurashtra stays excessive. “Farming has change into unsustainable,” Bhagwan Bhai stated, attributing it to the rise in costs of fertilisers and diesel. “I get Rs 400 for 20 kg of wheat which doesn’t even cowl my bills. If I rent the tractor for one hour, I’ve to pay Rs 900,” he stated.
However the Congress is now not the favoured alternative of disgruntled farmers. As a substitute, as I discovered whereas travelling throughout the south Saurashtra districts of Rajkot, Amreli and Junagadh, many are cautiously eyeing a comparatively new entrant to Gujarat’s electoral politics: the Aam Aadmi Social gathering.
Exodus from the Congress
The rationale for the dearth of enthusiasm for the Congress was the mass defection of its MLAs to the BJP.
Two years after the 2017 election, as an illustration, the Congress’s successful candidate from Manavadar constituency, Jawahar Chavda, had joined the BJP.
“The Congress folks will take your vote after which go to the BJP for cash – why ought to anybody vote for them?” Bhagwan Bhai requested.
Twenty-two MLAs who received on a Congress ticket – seven of them from Saurashtra – have switched to the BJP up to now. A number of extra are anticipated to take action nearer to the election.
Even Hardik Patel, the youth chief who led the Patidar Anamat Andolan, because the Patel agitation was referred to as, has joined the BJP after a quick stint within the Congress.
Recalling the occasions within the run as much as the 2017 election, Parth Mukhi, the Saurashtra convenor of the protest group led by Hardik Patel, stated: “There was an anti-BJP environment in Saurashtra on the time due to the anamat andolan and folks needed to show the BJP authorities a lesson.”
The leaders of the motion had on the time actively urged folks to vote towards the BJP – in different phrases, assist the Congress. Hardik Patel went on to formally be part of the grand previous social gathering in 2019, however solely to go away it for the BJP on a somewhat acrimonious be aware earlier this yr.
Patel’s volte-face was solely the final nail within the coffin – the reservation motion had wound up a lot earlier, stated Mukhi, who joined the Hindu hardliner Pravin Togadia’s far-right social gathering, Antarrashtriya Hindu Parishad, in 2019. “We had just one demand – reservation for all poor folks – and the federal government has taken steps in direction of that,” he defined.
In 2019, the BJP-led Union authorities had introduced 10% reservation for economically weaker sections amongst normal castes such because the Patels. The Gujarat authorities was the primary to implement it – a day after the Centre’s notification.
“There isn’t a such resentment towards the federal government this time in Saurashtra,” stated Mukhi.
Resentment towards the BJP
On the bottom, nonetheless, many farmers proceed to specific their frustration with the federal government.
Mansukh Bhai Patel, a groundnut farmer in Junagadh’s Dhebar, as an illustration, stated “nothing had modified”. “Our issues are nonetheless there – we nonetheless don’t get an excellent value for our crops,” he stated. “If something, the value of issues have gone up a lot, it’s change into all of the tougher to make ends meet.”
In neighbouring Amreli district’s Khadsali village, Manu Bhai Vataia, expressed comparable issues. “There may be nearly no revenue in farming anymore,” stated Vatalia, who grew cotton along with groundnut.
But, there’s little enthusiasm for the Congress, which has been the standard Opposition to the BJP within the state.
In Junagadh’s Bantiya village, Sanjay Bhai Patel, defined, “Should you really need change, there’s no level voting for them. In the end, they are going to simply go and be part of arms with the BJP.”
‘The Congress has nothing to provide’
Congress leaders in Saurashtra are conscious of the resentment brewing towards the social gathering– however appeared nearly resigned to it.
“The Congress has nothing to provide its leaders and staff because it has been out of energy for a very long time,” stated the Rajkot-based Hemang Vasavada, a vice-president of the social gathering’s Gujarat unit. “So those that are loopy after energy and cash, they’re leaving, that’s the issue.”
Vasavada blamed the “repressive environment” in Gujarat – “press captured, police captured” – for the social gathering’s incapability to channel what he termed “excessive anti-incumbency” towards the BJP authorities.
“Congress does an agitation, there’s no media protection,” he stated. “But when Amit Shah [currently the Union home minister] even holds a booth-level social gathering assembly, the native media will lower to it reside.”
The Congress’ electoral efficiency in Gujarat has nosedived after 2017. Within the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP trounced the social gathering in all 26 constituencies.
In Saurashtra, issues have been no higher. The 2016 Rajkot municipal elections had been a detailed affair – the Congress received 34 seats to the BJP’s 38. Final yr, although, the BJP received a landslide victory, successful 68 of the 72 seats.
A way of helplessness appears to have gripped the social gathering. One other senior chief in Rajkot blamed the general public for “not voting on actual points”. “One can’t assist if folks solely need to vote alongside Hindu-Muslim traces,” he stated.
A brand new pressure emerges
The Congress’s decline, nonetheless, could not essentially imply a free go for the BJP in Saurashtra. Conversations with residents, significantly within the area’s rural elements, revealed a rising trickle of assist for the “Dilli-wali” social gathering – the Aam Aadmi Social gathering. Many others cited its “profitable track-record” in Delhi, the place it has been in authorities since 2015.
In Junagadh’s Bantiya village, a part of the Manavadar constituency, Rasik Bhai Desai, stated he would again the social gathering because it had promised issues that will assist farmers like him – and the AAP had a knack of fulfilling guarantees it makes. “The BJP is nice for enterprise,” he stated. “But when we stick with Aam Aadmi, there will probably be actual advantages for us like free electrical energy.”
In Amreli’s Chital village, Pratap Bhai Vadia stated he needed to provide the social gathering an opportunity as his perception within the native leaders of the BJP had eroded. “I’m with the one who works,” stated Vadia, a farmer. “And in Delhi, we hear work has occurred.”
Nevertheless, there additionally gave the impression to be a way of trepidation amongst some in regards to the social gathering’s “outsider standing”. A couple of kilometres away, in Galvav village, Mukesh Bhai Patel stated he didn’t know the social gathering’s “ummeedwar”, or native candidate. “It’s tough to belief somebody you don’t know in any respect,” he stated.
The Aam Aadmi Social gathering’s state treasurer Sanjay Gadhvi, who switched from the Congress in April, made gentle of the problem. “We’re promoting a product to make folks’s lives higher,” he stated. The dearth of well-known native faces “could have been a difficulty earlier, however after the Delhi crew arrived in March, our political exercise has picked up,” he added.
A ‘cakewalk’ of an election?
Whereas there’s some advantage in Gadhvi’s claims in regards to the Aam Aadmi Social gathering’s success in making a buzz round itself, in Saurashtra, it’s nonetheless at finest a distant second.
The overwhelming majority of the folks I spoke to, reducing throughout the city and rural divide, expressed little curiosity in dislodging the BJP. Whereas there are unmistakably native grievances, not too many individuals consider that some other social gathering would be capable of do a greater job. Moreover, the enchantment of Prime Minister Narendra Modi endures.
In Amreli’s Kotada Pita village, Paresh Bhai Patel, a groundnut farmer, stated he and lots of of his neighbours voted for the Congress in 2017 due to Hardik Patel. “There was the sentiment of the anamat andolan,” he stated. “However we have now realised the Congress-walas don’t work and it’s higher to stay to BJP.”
But, it’s not that assist for BJP at all times stems from perception in its effectivity. Kishore Bhai Lav Chauhan, a daily-wage labourer in Junagadh’s Chaparda village, articulated a widespread sentiment amongst many individuals I spoke to: “Jo hai so hai – it’s what it’s. What’s the level of voting for anybody else when Modi will solely come?”
It isn’t shocking then that with simply three months to go for the meeting elections, BJP leaders come throughout as extraordinarily sure-footed. “The final elections, a variety of primarily BJP-minded folks voted towards us in Saurashtra due to the agitation, “ stated Bharat Kanabar, a senior chief who’s at the moment answerable for the social gathering’s operations in Bhavnagar district. “However that’s not going to be the case this time as a result of the agitation has fizzled out.”
He added, “No election is ever straightforward after all, however in comparison with final time, as issues stand now, this time it appears to be a little bit of a cakewalk.”
