Liz, meet Liz – POLITICO

LONDON — At round noon Tuesday, Liz Truss will arrive within the grand surrounds of Balmoral Citadel, Queen Elizabeth’s sprawling Nineteenth-century mansion within the Scottish highlands.

Her 96-year-old host may have a easy request for her visitor — to kind the subsequent authorities of the UK.

Truss would be the fifteenth politician of whom Queen Elizabeth has made such a request, at an viewers referred to as “kissing arms” — though arms, in reality, are now not kissed. As an alternative, custom dictates Truss will curtsy, and — afterwards — briefly talk about the work that lies forward. No aides or officers might be current.

Tuesday’s appointment would be the Queen’s first at her Aberdeenshire residence, the place she historically spends the late summer season and early fall holidaying along with her household. Recurring mobility points have prevented the aged monarch’s return to her London dwelling, Buckingham Palace, which is a brief drive from 10 Downing Road and would normally kind the backdrop as she performs her constitutional function of accepting the resignation of a defenestrated prime minister — as she may have finished with Boris Johnson earlier that day — and alluring their victorious successor to kind a authorities. 

For Truss, it is going to be a second to savor, the end result of 12 lengthy years working her method up the greasy pole of Westminster politics, adopted by a dash to the end in a brutal summer-long Tory management contest.

However the victorious chief gained’t have lengthy to replicate on her journey on the Queen’s 50,000-acre property on the banks of the River Dee.

As an alternative she’s going to shortly fly south once more to satisfy a chief ministerial convoy, which can take her on to Downing Road. Right here, the rhetoric of her summer-long marketing campaign will collide with the cruel actuality that awaits. Truss might be in cost, and there might be a lot to do.

After making an handle to the nation exterior 10 Downing Road at round 4 p.m., Truss might be greeted by Cupboard Secretary Simon Case, Whitehall’s most senior civil servant, and obtain the normal spherical of applause from Downing Road workers as she arrives at her new workplace and residential. She is going to then be led into the Cupboard room, doubtless along with her husband Hugh O’Leary in tow.

“For that individual coming by the door in No. 10, it’s the spotlight of their profession, and which may be the largest second of their lives,” Gus O’Donnell, a former Cupboard secretary, informed the BBC on Monday. He recalled how David Cameron, who turned PM in 2010, had merely put his head in his arms within the Cupboard room as the fact of the second dawned upon him.

The primary query from officers might be stark. The brand new PM should clarify whether or not they intend to “blow up the remainder of the world after we’ve been blown up,” O’Donnell stated, in reference to the U.Okay.’s nuclear deterrent. Truss will then be introduced with a collection of “fairly scary” safety and intelligence briefings — though having served as international secretary for the previous 12 months, little of what she hears ought to come as a shock.

A name with the president of america, Joe Biden, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may even be on the playing cards.

“It’s a little bit of a chaotic day,” O’Donnell smiled. 

Cash man

Probably the most urgent process for the brand new prime minister might be calming the markets.

Truss takes over at a time of excessive inflation, rising rates of interest, hovering vitality costs already forcing companies to shut their doorways, and an imminent recession.

How Truss and her new chancellor react might be essential. Kwasi Kwarteng, an outdated pal of Truss and fellow free market traveler, has been engaged on financial coverage in her transition group, and is broadly anticipated to take cost on the Treasury as soon as Truss is able to unveil her prime group. 

In a chunk for the Monetary Occasions on Monday Kwarteng promised “daring” motion, rolling the pitch for what he referred to as “fiscal loosening, to assist folks by the winter” — shorthand for a Treasury borrowing spree.  

He additionally doubled down on Truss’ promise of “quick motion” to chop taxes, and her plan to unshackle enterprise from “unsuitable rules.”

However combining what is anticipated to be a multi-billion pound package deal of vitality assist, prone to be introduced Thursday, with a package deal of large tax cuts later this month — to not point out the prospect of a harmful commerce battle with the European Union additional down the road — might be fairly a check of market confidence.

Sterling completed final week close to its lowest degree towards the greenback in virtually three many years, and forecasters predict it may but fall additional. Truss is aware of she should keep away from a ‘Black Wednesday‘-style rout if she is to outlive for lengthy.

Cupboard of all the abilities?

After placing her new chancellor in place, Truss may have the grisly process of sacking a succession of undesirable ministers, earlier than filling the vacancies along with her chosen prime group. It’s a job fraught with difficulties at one of the best of instances, however might be significantly troublesome after such a divisive management contest. 

A few of these anticipated to depart have already saved her the difficulty, nonetheless. Johnson loyalists Priti Patel and Nigel Adams, respectively the house secretary and a senior Cupboard Workplace minister, stop their posts Monday after Truss’ victory was introduced.

However Truss, even with the big Home of Commons majority she inherits from Johnson, should heal a few of the wounds inside the Tory Social gathering if she is to get her program of presidency by.

A far better variety of Conservative MPs had initially backed her management rival, Rishi Sunak, though she did begin to construct extra assist when it turned clear she was the Tory membership’s favored selection. 

“No matter she decides on the vitality package deal, it’s going to contain some laws in some unspecified time in the future. She’s received to get that by the Home,” O’Donnell stated. “She’s received to deliver the occasion collectively. The selection of her Cupboard might be completely essential.”

The response of the Tory backbenches might be very publicly on show at her first session of prime minister’s questions on Wednesday, lower than 24 hours after she takes workplace.

Truss may have little time to organize for the midday showdown with Labour Social gathering chief Keir Starmer, a half-hour parliamentary fixture at which backbench MPs can ask her something within the febrile ambiance of the Commons chamber. 

The mom of all in-trays

Truss remains to be finalizing her response to what is going to absolutely be the largest query of the day, nonetheless — the assist which must be provided to households and companies going through crippling vitality invoice hikes subsequent month.

The massive announcement is penciled in for Thursday, and the general public’s response would be the first large check of her authorities. Get it proper, and her ballot rankings may soar, quickly calming Tory jitters in regards to the competence of their new chief. Get it fallacious, and already-disgruntled MPs will begin to trigger hassle. 

Truss additionally is aware of she should get inflation underneath management if there’s any likelihood of avoiding recession. The rising value of residing has triggered waves of business motion — paralyzing rail and mail providers, in addition to the prison courts. 

In the meantime the bloody battle on mainland Europe exhibits no signal of abating, and Truss’ assist for Ukraine’s resistance can’t be questioned. A symbolic journey to Kyiv might be close to the highest of her in-tray.

And he or she should additionally determine the best way to deal with the Brexit query, with relations with the European Union on ice over her controversial Northern Eire Protocol Invoice at the moment making its method by Parliament. A confrontation with the Home of Lords, which is gearing up for an extended battle with Truss over the laws, is nearly sure.

There are indicators that Truss could try and make progress on negotiations with Brussels, nonetheless, with an early journey to Eire reportedly on her agenda.

Aides have advised she could alternatively set off Article 16 of the Protocol, nonetheless — a provision that permits an aggrieved facet to droop a selected a part of the settlement if it results in “severe financial, societal or environmental difficulties.” The EU wouldn’t be impressed.

“The EU and the U.Okay. are companions,” Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Fee, stated pointedly on Monday. She informed Truss she seemed ahead to “a constructive relationship, in full respect of our agreements.”

In her victory speech Truss promised to “govern as a Conservative,” and to “ship for our nation.” Given the ferocious nature of the headwinds that lie forward, she may have a troublesome job simply to remain on the right track.