Creator: Sharon Seah, ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
Cambodia assumed the ASEAN chair in 2022 with the theme ‘ASEAN ACT: Addressing Challenges Collectively’. Act, it definitely did. The chair began with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen’s high-profile go to to Myanmar’s capital Naypyidaw in January. However Myanmar’s issues proved tough to crack — even with a pacesetter usually sympathetic to imposing state management.
2022 rapidly spiralled with difficult worldwide crises past ASEAN’s management. To Cambodia’s credit score, ASEAN deftly steered itself via politically turbulent waters. The struggle in Ukraine noticed divergent positions of member states as ASEAN got here underneath intense stress for its weak stance on Ukraine.
ASEAN ultimately launched the ASEAN–EU commemorative assertion — by which ‘most members strongly condemned the struggle in Ukraine’. Regardless of its perceived closeness with Russia and China, Cambodia’s nationwide place developed from refusing to take sides to Hun Sen taking a telephone name with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The difficulty of Taiwan was a brand new litmus check for ASEAN unity on a problem that the group would like by no means to debate brazenly. But once more, Cambodia persuaded its fellow members to conform to a stand-alone assertion that firmly reiterated help for member states’ respective one-China insurance policies.
Timor Leste’s provisional admission to ASEAN — a problem debated throughout the group for over a decade — might be counted as a feather in Cambodia’s cap. Although many anticipated that Indonesia can be the chair to announce admission for Timor Leste, Cambodia’s tenacity in pushing for a decision helped clear the best way.
There was no query of ASEAN’s convening energy because the ASEAN summitry season opened. The ASEAN+1, ASEAN+3, East Asia Summit, ASEAN Regional Discussion board and ASEAN Defence Ministerial Assembly Plus continued to attract the same old slate of luminaries. Cambodia scored one up with Ukraine signing onto the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia. A complete strategic partnership with the US and India balanced the ASEAN–China and ASEAN–Australia complete strategic partnerships that have been awarded a 12 months in the past. Right here once more, ASEAN appeared to ship a stability of energy.
Economically, 2022 was extra of an ‘improve’ 12 months than one with new progressive deliverables. Beneath the Cambodian chair, ASEAN concluded the ASEAN–Australia–New Zealand Free Commerce Settlement improve and began negotiations to replace the ASEAN Commerce in Items Settlement. This may be certain that each agreements stay related, fashionable and aware of regional and international developments.
ASEAN additionally launched negotiations for the ASEAN Framework Settlement on Competitors to facilitate the creation of a good and aggressive enterprise surroundings. It additionally ran a feasibility research for a brand new Digital Financial Framework Settlement which can assist ASEAN leapfrog into the brand new digital economic system.
Indonesia will take over chairing a regional grouping that’s navigating via an more and more complicated geopolitical surroundings. Current challenges like recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and dealing with the Myanmar disaster are being exacerbated by heightened US–China rivalry, the Russia–Ukraine struggle, rising vitality costs, unstable meals safety, inflationary pressures and fears of recession. ASEAN’s capacity to coalesce as a gaggle appears to develop weaker with every succeeding disaster.
Indonesia’s efficiency might be partly evaluated by how effectively it manages the Myanmar disaster. From the early days of shuttle diplomacy to crafting a regional response, it seems that Indonesia’s adoption of a comparatively hardened place in direction of the Myanmar navy junta will proceed. Thailand’s convening of an ‘open-ended consultative assembly’ not solely undermined the incoming chair however might have additionally deepened the divide inside ASEAN over the Myanmar situation.
Using on the success of Indonesia’s G20 presidency, efficiency expectations for Indonesia are excessive. Indonesia’s new theme ‘ASEAN Issues: Epicentrum of Progress’ implies that financial deliverables might be its mainstay. Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Financial Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, defined that the theme is made up of three components — strengthening ASEAN’s capability and effectiveness, unity and centrality. The give attention to development factors to well being structure, vitality safety, meals safety and monetary stability. The financial focus might be translated into 16 precedence financial deliverables on restoration and rebuilding, digital economic system and sustainability.
Indonesia will seemingly additionally give attention to operationalising the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) — an idea initiated by Indonesia however noticed little progress after 2019. Mainstreaming the AOIP’s key areas of maritime cooperation, connectivity, UN Sustainable Growth Objectives and financial alongside different areas of cooperation might be a precedence.
The operationalisation of the AOIP is a response to the proliferation of various Indo-Pacific methods by its exterior companions. It may possibly actively undertaking ASEAN centrality again into the regional safety structure. The AOIP is the one Indo-Pacific idea that’s acceptable to each ASEAN dialogue companion. Even China, which doesn’t acknowledge the idea of an Indo-Pacific, doesn’t object to the AOIP.
Provided that commerce and economics stay on the centre of Indonesia’s chair theme, ASEAN can be effectively served if Indonesia have been to harmonise the totally different commerce pacts collectively. These embody the Complete and Progressive Settlement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Regional Complete Financial Partnership and the Indo-Pacific Financial Framework for Prosperity.
Indonesia, one of many extra mature democracies within the area, can play an important position in influencing ASEAN’s normative improvement. ASEAN’s present visioning train for a post-2025 ASEAN Group may gain advantage from Indonesia’s co-chair with everlasting chair Malaysia. With a risk-averse outgoing president and upcoming 2024 normal elections, Indonesia might not take the form of extra-regional daring overseas coverage selections that we anticipate to see however it’ll perform priorities of the chair.
Sharon Seah is Coordinator of the ASEAN Research Centre and the Local weather Change in Southeast Asia Programme on the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore.
This text is a part of an EAF particular characteristic sequence on 2022 in evaluation and the 12 months forward.
