The incoming UK prime minister faces a difficult geopolitical panorama as London appears to stability nearer alignment with Washington within the Indo-Pacific with safety considerations in Europe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reaffirmed London’s view that Western safety is a precondition to securing international coverage pursuits within the Indo-Pacific.
In March 2022, London and Washington agreed to deepen alignment within the Indo-Pacific to counter China. The communique underscored rising coordination amongst allies and safety companions throughout the Atlantic and the Pacific and a dedication to coordinate Washington’s Indo-Pacific Technique with the UK’s Indo-Pacific ‘tilt’ outlined within the 2021 Built-in Overview and Defence Command Paper.
The 2 nations at the moment prioritise current alliances and partnerships to counter shared safety considerations over Russia and China. On the NATO summit in Madrid, the alliance emphasised China’s ambitions and rising strategic partnership with Russia as a menace to NATO’s pursuits. In April 2022, an AUKUS communique reaffirmed London, Washington and Canberra’s dedication to a free and open Indo-Pacific whereas underscoring safety considerations over Russia.
The UK and the USA prioritise these preparations as they consider increased ranges of strategic convergence and commensurate capabilities will produce extra tangible outcomes. However nearer UK–US alignment additionally signifies that London will transcend its Indo-Pacific tilt on paper, posing challenges for UK policymakers in balancing their pursuits in Southeast Asia.
Many facets of the Indo-Pacific tilt give attention to ASEAN. In 2021, London achieved a diplomatic milestone by turning into ASEAN’s eleventh Dialogue Associate. The primary ASEAN–UK ministerial assembly in August 2022 issued a plan of motion to implement this partnership by deepening commerce, funding, defence and safety cooperation. Current knowledge suggests that the UK is turning into a extra trusted ‘third occasion’ amongst ASEAN members for hedging in opposition to the US–China strategic rivalry.
The UK in the meantime additionally deepened its safety and defence relations with US allies and Quad members past the USA and Australia. In 2021, Tokyo and London dedicated to a more in-depth maritime defence and safety cooperation. The UK additionally signed a framework for strengthening safety and defence relations with India till 2030.
From an ASEAN perspective, intensifying US–China rivalry poses main dangers to regional stability and prosperity. Regardless of ASEAN centrality rhetoric, US–China competitors is difficult ASEAN unity and its centrality within the wider regional structure. Considerations concerning the Quad’s position alongside ASEAN could have eased however they haven’t solely dissipated. Whereas there may be no ASEAN consensus over AUKUS, Indonesia and Malaysia see the pact as presumably precipitating an arms race.
How Southeast Asia assesses London’s contribution to regional stability will depend upon whether or not its involvement lowers or heightens the danger of nice energy confrontation. ASEAN nations may even look rigorously at how London accommodates their preferences concerning Russia and China. Jakarta’s evaluation is especially vital contemplating Indonesia will probably be ASEAN Chair in 2023.
London reaffirmed its condemnation of Russian belligerence on the August 2022 UK–ASEAN ministerial assembly. ASEAN, alternatively, has weaved a center floor by emphasising the significance of an instantaneous cessation of hostilities and the creation of an enabling surroundings for peaceable battle decision. Indonesia — the present G20 chair — invited each Ukraine and Russia to attend the G20 summit, whereas the UK believes Russia has ‘no ethical proper’ to attend.
Previous UK coverage resembled key ASEAN nations that concurrently have interaction China for financial profit and resist its assertiveness within the South China Sea. Former chancellor and prime ministerial candidate, Rishi Sunak, briefly led efforts to reengage Beijing in early 2022, just for former prime minister Boris Johnson to droop talks after struggling political backlash.
Within the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UK is embracing a more durable strategy vis-à-vis China and to current conflicts within the Indo-Pacific. Sunak labelled China the ‘largest long-term menace to Britain’. UK International Secretary Liz Truss — Sunak’s opposition within the prime ministerial race — favours ‘a worldwide NATO’. She additionally declared that the UK ought to present Taiwan with defensive weapons, earlier than stumbling on whether or not this was official coverage.
Whereas London recognises the Individuals’s Republic of China as the only authorized authorities of China, Truss unambiguously backed US Home of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s go to to Taiwan and described China’s response as ‘inflammatory’. As Prime Minister, Truss will reopen the UK’s Built-in Overview and formally classify China as a menace to nationwide safety.
The potential for the following UK authorities strengthening relations with Taipei to align with the USA within the Indo-Pacific would amplify ASEAN considerations, contemplating member states have interaction in far much less provocative behaviour. Whereas the UK and the USA are rhetorically dedicated to ASEAN centrality, nearer alignment between the 2 nations makes it much less seemingly that London will rigorously stability the calls for of US alignment with ASEAN’s pursuits.
From a Southeast Asian viewpoint, the UK’s consolation with US hegemony is comprehensible. However time will inform whether or not robust assist for Washington’s China technique will strengthen London’s relations in Southeast Asia.
John Harley Breen is a geopolitical threat advisor working in the UK and Eire.
Jürgen Haacke is Affiliate Professor in Worldwide Relations and former director of the Noticed Swee Hock Southeast Asia Centre on the London College of Economics and Political Science.
