U.S. natgas down 2% to 11-week low as Hurricane Ian batters Florida

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U.S. pure fuel futures slid about 2% on Wednesday to an 11-week low as Hurricane

Ian began to trigger energy outages in Florida, slicing the quantity of fuel that energy mills have to burn to

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produce electrical energy.

The U.S. Nationwide Hurricane Middle projected Ian would trigger “catastrophic storm surge, winds and flooding

within the Florida Peninsula” on Wednesday. The storm was situated about 55 miles (89 km) west of Naples, Florida,

and was packing most sustained winds of 155 miles (250 km) per hour.

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Solely about 2% of U.S. fuel manufacturing comes from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico, with most coming from

shale basins just like the Permian in West Texas and the Marcellus in Pennsylvania.

Analysts stated storms had been extra more likely to reduce demand than provide since they knock out energy and may trigger

liquefied pure fuel (LNG) export terminals to close.

Ian has already knocked out energy to round 145,000 clients in Florida, in line with information from

PowerOutage.us.

In different hurricane information, there have been nonetheless about 356,000 clients in Puerto Rico and 104,000 in Nova

Scotia with out energy after Hurricane Fiona battered the U.S. island on Sept. 18 and the Canadian province on

Sept. 24.

Additionally weighing on fuel costs, demand was anticipated to say no in October when the Cove Level LNG plant in

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Maryland shuts for a pair weeks of upkeep. Cove Level consumes about 0.8 billion cubic ft per day

(bcfd) of fuel.

U.S. fuel use has already been diminished for months by the continuing outage on the Freeport LNG export plant in

Texas, leaving extra fuel for U.S. utilities to inject into stockpiles for subsequent winter.

Freeport, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 bcfd of fuel earlier than it shut on

June 8. Freeport LNG expects the power to return to not less than partial service in early to mid-November.

On its final day because the front-month, fuel futures for October supply on the New York Mercantile

Alternate (NYMEX) fell 10 cents, or 1.5%, to $6.551 per million British thermal models (mmBtu) at 9:23 a.m. EDT

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(1323 GMT), placing the contract on observe for its lowest shut since July 12.

That stored the front-month in technically oversold territory with a relative power index (RSI) under 30

for a fifth day in a row first time since June.

Futures for November, which is able to quickly be the front-month, had been down about 1% at $6.69 per mmBtu.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve anticipated to maintain elevating rates of interest, open curiosity in NYMEX futures

fell on Tuesday to its lowest since February 2016 as traders reduce on dangerous property like

commodities.

Within the spot market, fuel costs on the Waha Hub in West Texas have plunged over 60% since

the beginning of September to $3.25 per mmBtu for Wednesday, their lowest since December 2021 as pipeline

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upkeep traps the gas throughout the Permian Shale basin, in line with information from Refinitiv and vitality

merchants.

Regardless of current worth declines, U.S. futures had been nonetheless up about 76% as world fuel costs have soared,

feeding demand for U.S. exports as a consequence of provide disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of

Ukraine.

Fuel was buying and selling round $56 per mmBtu in Europe and $42 in Asia. That was a 9% achieve

for costs in Europe on considerations Russia may cease fuel exports to Europe by way of Ukraine as a consequence of a fee dispute.

Russian fuel exports by way of the three essential traces into Germany – Nord Stream 1 (Russia-Germany), Yamal

(Russia-Belarus-Poland-Germany) and the Russia-Ukraine-Slovakia-Czech Republic-Germany route – have averaged

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simply 1.3 bcfd to this point in September, down from 2.5 bcfd in August and 10.8 bcfd in September 2021.

Week ended Week ended Yr in the past 5-year

Sep 23 Sep 16 Sep 23 common

(Forecast) (Precise) Sep 23

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +86 +103 +86 +77

U.S. complete natgas in storage (bcf): 2,960 2,874 3,157 3,283

U.S. complete storage versus 5-year common -9.8% -10.4%

International Fuel Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Present Day Prior Day This Month Prior Yr 5 Yr

Final Yr Common Common

2021 (2017-2021)

Henry Hub 6.51 6.65 5.11 3.73 2.89

Title Switch Facility (TTF) 55.20 51.72 22.61 16.04 7.49

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 42.47 37.69 23.35 18.00 8.95

Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Whole (TDD) Diploma Days

Two-Week Whole Forecast Present Day Prior Day Prior Yr 10-Yr 30-Yr

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Norm Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs 63 58 24 63 83

U.S. GFS CDDs 70 72 89 85 68

U.S. GFS TDDs 133 130 113 148 151

Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Provide and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week Present Week Subsequent Week This Week 5-Yr

Final Yr Common For

Month

U.S. Provide (bcfd)

U.S. Decrease 48 Dry Manufacturing 98.3 98.7 99.2 93.5 87.0

U.S. Imports from Canada 8.0 7.9 7.7 8.3 7.7

U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

Whole U.S. Provide 106.2 106.6 106.9 101.8 95.8

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.3

U.S. LNG Exports 11.5 11.8 11.1 10.3 4.9

U.S. Business 4.8 5.3 5.4 5.0 4.9

U.S. Residential 3.9 5.0 5.1 4.3 3.9

U.S. Energy Plant 36.4 32.9 31.2 29.8 33.2

U.S. Industrial 21.3 21.6 21.5 20.7 21.2

U.S. Plant Gas 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9

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U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.1

U.S. Car Gas 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Whole U.S. Consumption 73.3 71.8 70.1 66.7 70.3

Whole U.S. Demand 92.4 91.1 88.6 84.7 82.9

U.S. weekly energy era % by gas – EIA

Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended

Sep 30 Sep 23 Sep 16 Sep 9 Sep 2

Wind 9 10 8 6 7

Photo voltaic 4 3 3 3 3

Hydro 5 5 5 6 5

Different 2 2 2 2 2

Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0

Pure Fuel 41 41 42 45 44

Coal 18 19 19 21 21

Nuclear 21 19 19 18 17

SNL U.S. Pure Fuel Subsequent-Day Costs ($ per mmBtu)

Hub Present Day Prior Day

Henry Hub 6.83 6.75

Transco Z6 New York 4.90 4.30

PG&E Citygate 7.80 7.69

Dominion South 4.89 4.16

Chicago Citygate 5.43 5.09

Algonquin Citygate 4.96 4.60

SoCal Citygate 8.39 8.90

Waha Hub 3.25 3.79

AECO 4.00 3.83

SNL U.S. Energy Subsequent-Day Costs ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub Present Day Prior Day

New England 53.00 51.75

PJM West 68.25 57.50

Ercot North 50.00 49.90

Mid C 68.50 108.00

Palo Verde 95.00 101.25

SP-15 96.00 105.50

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; enhancing by Jonathan Oatis)