Creator: Loro Horta, Dili
In June 2022, a number of media stories introduced that China was opening a navy base at Cambodia’s Ream naval base positioned on the southern tip of Cambodia near the contested waters of the South China Sea. Cambodia has already used Chinese language funding to modernise and broaden the Ream naval base. The stories claimed {that a} secret deal had been signed between Cambodia and China, giving the Chinese language Folks’s Liberation Military Navy (PLAN) unique entry to a part of Ream.
Each Cambodia and China denied such stories. Cambodian Defence Minister Tea Banh mentioned that the nation’s structure strictly forbade internet hosting overseas troops in its territory. Time will inform whether or not China will set up such a base in Cambodia.
The extra attention-grabbing query is the potential strategic implications of a Chinese language base in southern Cambodia. US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman reiterated US issues over the ‘building of such amenities’. Whereas the USA has not elaborated on the menace {that a} Chinese language naval base at Ream might pose, most analysts argue that it could improve the PLAN’s means to function within the disputed waters of the South China Sea.
However a base at Ream wouldn’t considerably enhance the Chinese language navy and air pressure’s means to function within the South China Sea. Chinese language naval vessels and plane stationed in Hainan and southern China are effectively throughout the vary of all of the islands claimed by China within the Paracel and Spratly islands. Chinese language plane have flown in massive numbers as far south as Malaysia. In June 2021, Malaysia reported that 16 Chinese language plane flying in formation had violated its air house.
For Chinese language navy vessels working from Hainan and southern China, a base at Ream is even much less essential. China has constructed a minimum of 20 synthetic islands within the South China Sea — lots of them with infrastructure way more refined than the Ream base.
In March 2022, US Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral John C Aquilino mentioned that China had totally militarised a minimum of three islands within the South China Sea. He claimed China had deployed anti-ship missiles, air defence missiles, fighter jets, lasers and anti-jamming gear on these islands. These militarised islands are throughout the protecting vary of plane and air defence missiles based mostly in southern China.
However whereas Ream just isn’t important for Chinese language energy within the South China Sea, it has strategic significance for Vietnam. Vietnam’s east coast faces the Chinese language island of Hainan the place the PLAN’s south fleet relies. China might blockade the east coast of Vietnam rapidly, together with its principal naval base at Cam Ranh Bay.
As a result of Cambodia shares each land and sea borders with Vietnam, a Chinese language naval presence in Ream — lower than 100 miles from the Vietnamese southern coast — could be helpful to China. A Chinese language base would permit China to blockade the southern Vietnamese coast in a matter of hours. The mixture of Chinese language naval forces in Hainan and Ream would successfully seal off Vietnam from the ocean. The Vietnamese military fought effectively throughout China’s 1979 invasion — inflicting heavy casualties on the Folks’s Liberation Military — however in a battle over the South China Sea, the Vietnamese navy and air pressure could be no match for the Chinese language.
Vietnam has been attempting for many years to comprise Chinese language affect in Cambodia and Laos. However China’s overwhelming financial energy has made these efforts troublesome. Within the north, Vietnam shares a land border with China and within the west, with Laos and Cambodia. Laos and Cambodia are extremely depending on China for commerce and funding and have turn out to be shut diplomatic allies of Beijing.
Somewhat than simply focussing on Cambodia, the USA ought to have a look at methods to assist Vietnam extra actively. There have been years-long rumours that some within the Vietnamese elite have been contemplating permitting the US navy to return to its outdated Vietnam Conflict-era base at Cam Ranh Bay. US naval ships have visited the bottom lately.
The legacy of the Vietnam Conflict makes it troublesome for a proud nation akin to Vietnam to permit a US base to be established in its territory. But when China does open a naval base at Ream, this may increasingly change.
Loro Horta is a diplomat and scholar from Timor-Leste. He has served as Timor-Leste’s ambassador to Cuba and counselor on the Timor-Leste embassy in Beijing.
