The latest high-level engagements between India and Turkiye (previously Turkey) have been a shift from the previous three years of deteriorating relations. On September 16, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi unexpectedly met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Group (SCO) Summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Each the leaders mentioned the methods to strengthen bilateral relations, specifically giving a thrust to financial cooperation. Nonetheless, this engagement is unlikely to supply a constructive push to the connection, since India and Turkiye are discovering it arduous to return out of the sample that has come to outline their relations for the reason that final three years.

After the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, which abolished the particular standing of Jammu and Kashmir, India-Turkiye ties have deteriorated. Since then each the international locations have countered one another, largely not directly, at numerous worldwide boards.

Throughout his speech on the United Nations Common Meeting (UNGA) in 2019 Erdogan raised the problem of Kashmir. To this, Modi responded by holding conferences with the leaders of Armenia, Cyprus, and Greece, three international locations with which Turkiye has disputes. Additional, Modi was slated to go to Turkiye and Saudi Arabia in October 2019. However he cancelled his go to to Turkiye and visited solely Saudi Arabia, thereby sending a message to Ankara about India’s diplomatic preferences.

Erdogan once more raised the Kashmir concern on the UNGA throughout his speeches in 2020 and 2021. On these two events as nicely, India slammed Erdogan’s remarks. In 2020, India’s Everlasting Consultant to the United Nations T.S. Tirumurti acknowledged that Turkiye first must respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of different nations. In 2021, Indian Exterior Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met the overseas minister of Cyprus and referred to as for adhering to the United Nations Safety Council (UNSC) decision on Cyprus.

The identical sample has continued in 2022. Regardless of his assembly with Modi every week prior, Erdogan introduced up the Kashmir concern throughout his UNGA speech, following which Jaishankar held a gathering with Turkiye’s Overseas Minister Mevut Cavusoglu and raised the problem of Cyprus. Jaishankar additionally met with Greek Overseas Minister Nikos Dendias.

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The Modi-Erdogan assembly created expectations for the advance of India-Turkiye ties, however Erdogan’s remarks on Kashmir ensured that the expectations have been short-lived.

The stalemate in India-Turkiye relations stems from Turkiye’s incapacity to decouple itself from Pakistan and the Kashmir concern and conduct relations with India independently. Turkiye’s constant help to Pakistan, significantly on the Kashmir concern, has been a serious obstacle in growth of India-Turkiye ties. In return for its help over the Kashmir concern, Pakistan has supported Turkiye on the problems reminiscent of fuel exploration within the japanese Mediterranean Sea and the Armenia-Azerbaijan warfare.

For Turkiye, help to Pakistan can also be a subset of Ankara’s rivalry between the Center Jap international locations. For a very long time, Turkiye has been competing with the Arab international locations, significantly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, for a management place the Muslim world. The rising proximity between Turkiye and Pakistan has thus additionally been the results of India’s strengthening and diversifying ties with the Arab international locations prior to now one decade. As soon as Pakistan loved shut ties with the Arab international locations. However with India gaining prominence within the Arab world, Pakistan drew near Turkiye. Additional, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE supporting India’s place on Jammu and Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, Turkiye has intensified its actions with regard to Jammu and Kashmir.

Turkiye has quick emerged as a hub of anti-India actions. Turkiye follows a three-pronged strategy to on this regard – employment of Kashmiri journalists, offering scholarships to Indian Muslims, and funding NGOs in India to affect Indian Muslims. A Turkish NGO, Insan Hak ve Hurriyetleri ve Insani Yardim Vakfi (IHH), has ties with the Widespread Entrance of India (PFI), a controversial Islamic group that has been accused of selling radical Islam and sustaining ties with terrorist teams.

Turkiye additionally encourages radical Kashmiri youth to shift base to Istanbul and Ankara. Furthermore, Turkiye-made pistols have been recovered from Pakistani terrorists earlier this yr.

The Modi-Erdogan assembly at Samarkand had raised hopes for a thaw in bilateral relations. Turkiye is on the lookout for avenues to strengthen its dwindling financial system, which improved ties with India would facilitate a minimum of to some extent. As part of addressing financial issues, lately Erdogan has sought to fix ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Nonetheless, contemplating Turkiye’s document of antagonizing allies and pleasant international locations reminiscent of the USA and the European international locations, there may be room for doubt as to how lengthy the rapprochement with the Arab international locations would final. This means that Turkiye might not search to fix ties with India any time quickly.