Authors: Mendee Jargalsaikhan, Ariunbold Tsetsenkhuu and Munkhtulga Batmunkh, Institute for Strategic Research of Mongolia

Like lots of Russia’s neighbours, the struggle in Ukraine complicates Mongolia’s overseas coverage and stokes its concern of turning into a pawn — and even the chessboard — in brewing nice energy geopolitics. Mongolia’s financial and demographic vulnerability in comparison with its highly effective neighbours has silenced the nation’s worldwide voice because it cautiously treads geopolitical water.

During the last three a long time, Mongolia has maintained equidistant relations between China and Russia whereas strengthening its visibility in multilateral organisations and relations with third neighbours like Japan, India, america, Turkey, Germany, South Korea, Canada and Australia.

Historic considerations about China’s growth imply that Mongolia naturally sees Russia as a safety companion. However the Nineteen Thirties Stalinist purges and over 70 years of subordination remind Mongolia to maintain different associates shut to scale back Russian affect over the nation’s politics. Its flawed democracy serves as an ideological reference to the West and strengthens its identification vis-a-vis its authoritarian neighbours.

The struggle in Ukraine challenges this technique. Political leaders and high diplomats in Ulaanbaatar have remained silent and try to maintain present ties with Russia unaffected by the struggle. Their primary concern is Mongolia’s dependence on Russian gasoline suppliers. Mongolia welcomed Russian International Minister Sergey Lavrov in July 2022 and has continued all bilateral exchanges, together with a joint navy train.

Mongolia can also be more and more involved about its relations with China. Mongolia’s economic system is closely depending on China’s commodity imports and Chinese language ports, roads and logistics join it to international commerce. Because of this, it’s attempting to keep away from being caught in the midst of the US–China geopolitical contest. Financial points overwhelmed bilateral talks throughout Chinese language International Minister Wang Yi’s go to to Mongolia in August 2022.

Mongolian leaders and companies need to preserve their ties with different international locations with out becoming a member of or endorsing sanctions in opposition to Russia. To this finish, Mongolia has continued bilateral dialogues with third neighbours, welcomed overseas ministers from Japan and Poland, performed a multilateral navy train with america and Japan and hosted high NATO navy leaders.

As a substitute of taking sides, Mongolia is pursuing multilateral diplomacy. It organised an worldwide convention in June 2022 on strengthening the position of girls peacekeepers attended by the UN Below-Secretary-Basic for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix and over 60 feminine peacekeepers from 30 international locations. Mongolia additionally hosted the primary post-COVID-19 in-person worldwide dialogue, the Ulaanbaatar Dialogue on Northeast Asian Safety. Though North Korea missed the dialogue, it was well-attended by different worldwide individuals, together with Russia.

UN Secretary-Basic Antonio Guterres visited Mongolia in early August 2022 to focus on the nation’s dedication to strengthening its Nuclear-Weapon-Free Standing. Since 1992, Mongolia has labored with the United Nations, the Non-Aligned Motion and like-minded supporters to be recognised as a single state Nuclear-Weapon-Free-Zone (NWFZ) by the UN Safety Council’s 5 everlasting members.

Mongolia’s silence on the Russo–Ukrainian battle and lively multilateralism are comprehensible on condition that the nation’s safety and economic system largely rely on its two massive neighbours. Russia’s actions in opposition to Ukraine remind Mongolians about their gasoline, electrical energy and commerce vulnerabilities. Fearing a hostile Russian response, the Mongolian public not too long ago responded to allegations {that a} US bio lab was being established in Mongolia by demanding an official authorities denouncement.

Due to their historic ties with Ukraine, some Mongolians proceed to specific their objection to Russian navy aggression regardless of being at odds with authorities officers. Makes an attempt by completely different teams to control public opinion have been ineffective as neither aspect has overwhelming assist.

The vast majority of Mongolians seem to favour neutrality and public attitudes towards a rise in Russian guests and Ukrainian expatriates stay regular. Solely the state-owned Mongolian Nationwide Broadcasting backs Russia’s declare that the invasion is a particular navy operation — all different media shops observe their very own editorial insurance policies. In Mongolia, pro-Russian posts dominate Fb whereas pro-Ukrainian sentiment is frequent on Twitter.

Though the vast majority of Mongolians want neutrality and the ruling get together stays silent on the battle, politicians from opposition events proceed to criticise the federal government and align with the Western world. It’s laborious to inform whether or not these are real requires peace or just politicians pursuing their very own slender pursuits. Regardless of the purpose, Mongolia is strolling a tightrope whereas its folks hope for a peaceable resolution to the battle.

Mendee Jargalsaikhan is Deputy Director and Dean on the Institute for Strategic Research of Mongolia.

Ariunbold Tsetsenkhuu is Senior Researcher on the Institute for Strategic Research of Mongolia.

Munkhtulga Batmunkh is Researcher on the Institute for Strategic Research of Mongolia.