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The sanctions towards Russia at the moment are turning towards those that initiated them. The hovering worth of fuel and electrical energy is prone to trigger actual riots in France. As within the UK and possibly elsewhere.
March 1, 2022. Bruno Le Maire, Minister of the Financial system: “The sanctions imposed on Russia are extraordinarily efficient. We’re waging a complete financial and monetary warfare on Russia. We are going to trigger the collapse of the Russian economic system.”
Friday, August 19, 2022, in Bormes-les-Mimosas. Emmanuel Macron: “I’m pondering of our individuals, who will want self-control to face the approaching time, to withstand the uncertainties, generally the benefit and the adversity and, united, to simply accept to pay the value of our freedom and our values”.
Wednesday, August 24, 2022. Emmanuel Macron: “What we’re experiencing is a superb change of route (…) the tip of abundance”.
🗣 Emmanuel Macron prend la parole au conseil des ministres : “Ce que nous sommes en prepare de vivre est de l’ordre d’une grande bascule (…) celle de la fin de l’abondance”
Suivez le reside ⤵ https://t.co/xh1S6KIbew pic.twitter.com/Ci1WC7N9w4— franceinfo (@franceinfo) August 24, 2022
5 months after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian warfare, the official discourse has modified. There isn’t a longer any query of taking part in the matamores. The financial state of affairs now not permits for bluster. The long run appears very darkish for France in addition to for Europe. After the Covid-19 sanitary disaster, the summer season warmth wave, the catastrophic drought for crops and the large fires, it’s inflation that’s inviting us again to highschool in 2022. And extra exactly, the vertiginous rise in fuel and electrical energy costs which we surprise if households and firms will be capable of pay the payments.
Payments will explode
It’s true that Macron has invited the French “to be power sober”. However costs on the markets have soared to such an extent that nobody is aware of the place they may cease.
In Rotterdam, on the finish of August, the MWh of fuel was buying and selling at €320 (in comparison with €15 just some months in the past). As for the wholesale worth of electrical energy, it has actually soared from 85 MWh a yr in the past to €1,000 right now. And it’s not over but, as purchases for December 2022 are already buying and selling at €1,600 per MWh.
Because of this the payments will explode within the coming weeks and months. With the social and political penalties that we are able to think about.
UK: two-thirds of households in precariousness
And it isn’t going to get any higher, since Russia, the main provider of fuel to Europe, and significantly to Germany, goes to cut back its deliveries in retaliation for the sanctions imposed on it. Deliveries through the North Stream1 pipeline shall be halted for 3 days at the start of September. And it isn’t identified whether or not they may resume. Many nations use fuel to provide electrical energy.
The Germans have already introduced a drastic plan of power restrictions: limiting heating to 19° in public buildings, no extra heated swimming swimming pools, and many others.
In the UK, regulated power tariffs will improve by 80% from October, in line with OFGEM, the British regulator of the sector.
Two-thirds of UK households shall be plunged into insecurity. Unions expect an explosion of violence.
The French nuclear fleet is failing
France is much less dependent than different nations on Russian fuel, about 17% of its consumption. However that is nonetheless not negligible. Particularly for the reason that French nuclear park, which ought to in precept assure us a relative power autonomy, is failing. Corrosion issues within the pipes have pressured the shutdown of 24 of our 56 reactors.
Penalties for shoppers? Payments in sturdy improve that the State will attempt to compensate because of the renewal of the tariff protect which, since October 1st, 2021, freezes the scales of the regulated tariffs.
Is that this sufficient? Not essentially. Every little thing will depend upon the continued rise in fuel and electrical energy costs on the European market, but in addition on the severity of the winter. It’s true that, in line with the European platform Agregated Fuel Storage Inventor (AGSI), France has stuffed greater than 90% of its fuel storage capability. This is sufficient to cushion the shocks and keep away from main shortages this winter. However costs will proceed to rise. The Russian-Ukrainian warfare is way from over.
The long run stays darkish. Even very darkish.
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