It’s the scandal that received’t go away — and produces extra intrigue than solutions.

The EU’s public prosecutor’s workplace on Friday mentioned it was investigating the EU’s buy of coronavirus vaccines through the pandemic’s peak. But the cagey announcement supplied virtually no particulars — nothing on who it was investigating, what potential crimes it was searching for, or why it had taken the step now.

Enter the Brussels hypothesis machine. Its prime chatter: Ursula von der Leyen’s texts. 

For months, strain has been piling up on the European Fee president since her admission that she swapped texts with Pfizer chief govt Albert Bourla whereas the EU was negotiating its vaccine contract with the corporate. Two EU watchdog companies have already chided her over the matter, venting over the Fee’s refusal to provide the texts.

However is the European Public Prosecutor’s Workplace even trying into this matter? For now, there’s no means of understanding.

Within the meantime, POLITICO breaks down what this may imply for von der Leyen and the EU, and appears at what (or who) else could be within the EU prosecutor’s crosshairs. 

How did this all begin? 

In April 2021, von der Leyen instructed the New York Occasions that she had traded texts with the Pfizer CEO for a month within the run-up to the EU signing its contract with the U.S. pharmaceutical big. 

Within the deal, the Fee dedicated to purchase 900 million Pfizer-BioNTech photographs on behalf of EU members, with an choice to buy one other 900 million. 

Why did this trouble individuals? 

The remarks prompted chatter about whether or not von der Leyen had freelanced through the contract negotiations and circumvented regular channels. 

Journalists requested entry to the texts, solely to be instructed there was no report of such messages. 

However the EU Ombudsman later revealed that the Fee had by no means explicitly requested von der Leyen’s staff to search for the texts, because it didn’t contemplate them “paperwork” that merited preservation. In a report on its findings, the ombudsman branded the method “maladministration.”

The Fee countered that it will possibly’t present the texts as a result of “short-lived, ephemeral paperwork will not be saved.”  

One other EU watchdog, the European Courtroom of Auditors, later piled on in its personal probe. The company discovered von der Leyen had intervened in early talks with Pfizer and sidelined the standard negotiating groups to personally hash out a preliminary deal. 

“We requested the Fee to offer us with data on the preliminary negotiations for this settlement,” the court docket of auditors wrote in a report. “Nonetheless, none was forthcoming.”

A Pfizer official final week instructed the European Parliament that the corporate didn’t negotiate its vaccine contract through textual content message. However whereas the legalese of the contract itself might need been determined by groups of attorneys, it’s not clear what politically delicate selections have been taken in these essential preliminary negotiations, of which there isn’t any public report.

So what can we inform about whether or not the EU prosecutor is trying into this?

Not a lot, sadly. 

The timing is fascinating, however the EU prosecutor may very nicely be investigating any of the quite a few vaccine contracts the EU signed, in addition to different officers inside or outdoors the Fee. 

One issue to contemplate: the EU prosecutor’s remit is to probe the misuse of EU funds. And a lot of the vaccines have been finally paid for by EU members — not the EU itself. Nonetheless, €2.5 billion in EU cash was used to finance a number of the upfront prices of vaccine manufacturing. 

How unhealthy may it get for von der Leyen? 

On condition that the EU prosecutor particularly investigates felony issues, it will possibly’t be overstated how unhealthy this could be for von der Leyen if she was swept up within the probe. However once more, there isn’t any proof thus far. 

On Monday, a Fee spokesman mentioned it “hadn’t obtained any data on this subject but.”

Nonetheless, the problem is probably poisonous for von der Leyen given her involvement in an identical scandal whereas she was Germany’s protection minister. 

Throughout an investigation into Germany’s awarding of profitable protection contracts throughout her time as minister, it emerged that information had been wiped from von der Leyen’s telephones, precluding it from getting used within the probe. 

Although investigators cleared von der Leyen within the matter, she instructed a German parliamentary inquiry that “classes had been realized.” 

Von der Leyen can also be no stranger to the world of prescription drugs. Her husband, Heiko, is a director on the U.S. biotechnology firm Orgenesis, and she or he’s a physician by coaching.

Who else may it’s? 

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama made waves earlier this month when he admitted that Italy’s Overseas Minister Luigi Di Maio broke vaccine contract guidelines to offer Albania photographs on humanitarian grounds early within the pandemic. 

However this could seemingly be outdoors of the EU prosecutor’s remit because the vaccines have been bought with Italian funds, and that donation doesn’t appear to satisfy the bar of “extraordinarily excessive public curiosity” talked about by the EPPO. 

What’s subsequent?

Most likely loads of silence from the EU prosecutor and loads of rumors in Brussels — till investigators supply extra readability (or journalists work out extra).